Resolution-window risk
Did activity spike unusually close to the moment this market settles?
In plain English
Activity in this market spiked unusually close to its resolution. Positions taken just before an outcome settles receive extra scrutiny because that is when manipulation pays.
What the record supports
- Volume and position changes in the final window before resolution, against the market's own baseline.
- Which participants were active in that window.
- Whether they were present earlier or arrived for it.
What the record does not support
- Whether the outcome was already effectively known. Late trading in a market whose result has become obvious is rational, not suspicious.
- Anything about the resolution process itself, which happens outside the trading record.
Obligation
Why it matters.
The final window before settlement is when manipulation pays and when acting on a known outcome is most profitable, so it attracts scrutiny by default. This indicator does not claim wrongdoing; it marks the window where the cost of not looking is highest.
We describe what was detected and which duty it engages. Whether any obligation has been breached is a judgement for the operator's compliance and legal function, not for an instrument.
See the rest of the set.
Twelve indicators across three obligation families, each with its coverage stated as plainly as its capability.